China Advances Toward Taiwan
Presented by Dr. David K. Ewen, Professor of Global Communications
You heard it here first, Recently, China appears to have taken a significant step towards escalating these tensions by simulating its first aircraft carrier strike on Taiwan. The recent increase in Chinese military activity near Taiwan and the US's continued support for the island suggest that the Taiwan-China relationship remains a volatile issue with the potential for significant regional and global implications.
The long-standing tensions between China and Taiwan have been a source of concern for the international community for decades. Recently, China appears to have taken a significant step towards escalating these tensions by simulating its first aircraft carrier strike on Taiwan. This move highlights the rapid development of China's military capabilities and raises concerns about the potential consequences of a military strike on Taiwan. In this article, we will examine the historical background of the conflict, the development of China's military capabilities, and the potential implications of a military strike on Taiwan.
The historical tensions between China and Taiwan can be traced back to the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the victory of the Communist Party of China (CPC) over the Nationalist Party (KMT). As a result, the KMT retreated to Taiwan and established the Republic of China (ROC) government, which still governs Taiwan to this day. The CPC, however, claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has never renounced the use of force to reunify Taiwan with China. This has led to ongoing tensions and occasional military confrontations between the two sides. The United States has also played a significant role in the Taiwan-China relationship, with the US recognizing the ROC as the legitimate government of China until 1979, when it switched recognition to the People's Republic of China (PRC). This shift in recognition did not resolve the issue of Taiwan's status, however, and the US continues to sell arms to Taiwan and maintain unofficial diplomatic relations with the island. As SM Goldstein notes, "the United States has played a key role in the Taiwan issue, and its actions have frequently been a source of tension in the cross-Strait relationship" (Goldstein 15). Despite efforts to improve relations between Taiwan and China, such as the 1992 Consensus, which affirmed the One China principle while allowing for different interpretations, tensions continue to simmer beneath the surface. The recent increase in Chinese military activity near Taiwan and the US's continued support for the island suggest that the Taiwan-China relationship remains a volatile issue with the potential for significant regional and global implications.
The development of China's military capabilities has been a topic of much interest in recent years. According to Cliff (2015), China's military modernization efforts have been driven by a number of factors, including concerns about regional security, the need to protect its interests overseas, and the desire to project power and influence on the global stage. To this end, China has invested heavily in developing advanced weapons systems, such as the J-20 stealth fighter, the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, and the DF-31A intercontinental ballistic missile. Additionally, China has expanded its navy and built a number of new aircraft carriers, including the Liaoning and the Shandong. These efforts have not gone unnoticed, and many experts believe that China's military capabilities are rapidly approaching parity with those of the United States. However, Cliff (2015) notes that there are still significant gaps in China's military capabilities, particularly in areas such as logistics and command and control. Furthermore, China's military has not yet demonstrated that it can operate effectively beyond its borders, which remains a key challenge for Beijing as it seeks to expand its influence in the region and around the world.
The possibility of a military strike on Taiwan has not only been a topic of discussion among international relations scholars but also a concern for policymakers in the United States and China. In his article, SL Kastner argues that a military strike on Taiwan by China could have significant consequences for the region and the global economy. According to Kastner, a military strike would lead to a significant increase in tensions between China and the United States, which could potentially result in a military conflict. Furthermore, a military strike on Taiwan could cause a significant disruption in the global economy since Taiwan is a major player in the electronics industry. Kastner suggests that such a disruption would be felt worldwide, particularly in the United States and Japan, which rely heavily on Taiwanese electronics. Additionally, a military strike could lead to a refugee crisis as Taiwanese citizens flee to neighboring countries to escape the violence. In conclusion, Kastner's analysis highlights the potential consequences of a military strike on Taiwan, including increased tensions between China and the United States, disruptions in the global economy, and a refugee crisis.
So, in a nutshell, the recent reports of China simulating an aircraft carrier strike on Taiwan have raised concerns about the country's intentions towards its neighbor. The tension between China and Taiwan has been ongoing for decades, and this move by China is seen as a provocative act. It remains to be seen whether China will escalate these actions or whether it will lead to diplomatic negotiations between the two countries. However, it is apparent that the situation in the region is fragile, and any miscalculation could have severe consequences.
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