China is expanding its sphere of influence in Central Asia.

China is expanding its sphere of influence in Central Asia.

Presented by Dr. David K. Ewen

Enterprise College

Discover how China is expanding its sphere of influence in Central Asia, as part of a grand strategy to provide an alternative to Western powers. From infrastructure investments to cultural diplomacy, China's presence in the region is steadily growing. Learn more about this fascinating development and how it could shape the geopolitical landscape in the years to come.

As the G7 leaders were preparing for their recent summit in Japan, President Xi Jinping of China hosted his central Asian counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This gathering highlighted the growing importance of Central Asia for China's strategic objectives and its efforts to establish an alternative to the US-led liberal order.

President Xi's "vision of a China-central Asia community with a shared future" was unveiled during the summit. This vision rests on four principles: mutual assistance, common development, universal security, and everlasting friendship. While security and development have traditionally been the focus of the China-central Asia relationship, the recent initiatives launched at the summit in Xi'an revealed a significant political dimension as well.

These initiatives propose closer links between Chinese ministries and government agencies with their counterparts in central Asia, increased educational and cultural exchanges, and the creation of mechanisms like the Central Asia–China Business Council. These efforts are expected to further solidify China's dominant regional role and strengthen its influence in central Asia.

In return for its economic support and cooperation, China aims to insulate the mostly authoritarian leaders of central Asia from Western economic and political pressure to move towards democracy. Additionally, China seeks to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity against any potential Russian adventurism.

The summit was a resounding success, with 54 agreements, 19 new cooperation mechanisms and platforms, and nine multilateral documents, including the Xi'an declaration. While some of these agreements may face uncertain prospects of implementation, China's regional significance cannot be overlooked. China's growing presence in central Asia is a significant shift from the historical dominance of Russia in the region. Russia had been the primary partner for central Asia, dating back to the Soviet era and the first decade after its dissolution. However, Russia can no longer match the value of Chinese investments and construction contracts in central Asia, which have reached nearly $70 billion since 2005. This shift towards China is also reflected in the declining importance of Russia's regional integration project, the Eurasian Economic Union, in comparison to China's massive global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI, launched by President Xi in Kazakhstan in 2013, has brought the region closer to China both economically and politically. The Xi'an declaration prominently featured the Belt and Road Initiative, explicitly linking it to the national development strategies of central Asian countries. Transport infrastructure remains at the core of this initiative. The countries at the summit reaffirmed their commitment to various transportation projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and highways connecting China to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The closure of the Russian "northern corridor" due to sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine has further emphasized the significance of alternative routes. The middle corridor, which starts in Turkey and passes through Georgia and central Asia, has regained importance not only for China but also for the G7 countries. However, this route poses challenges as it involves crossing multiple borders and switching between road, rail, and sea, limiting its capacity. Another alternative route of geopolitical significance is through Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea via the Pakistani port of Gwadar. A trans-Afghan route would benefit both China and central Asia, but its viability depends on stability and security in Afghanistan.

While the eagerness with which the five central Asian presidents embraced China's initiatives suggests their willingness to deepen ties with China, the sustainability and popularity of this approach in the region remain to be seen. Nonetheless, China's growing importance in the region cannot be ignored, and its efforts to establish a new order in Central Asia are likely to have far-reaching consequences.

Presented by Dr. David K. Ewen.